2014 IAAF World Junior Champs DEEP Previews! MEN’S TRACK (updated)
see bottom of page for photo credits
Event-by-event capsule previews of the men's track events, noting Team USA hopes and leading global contenders for the 2014 IAAF World Junior Championships:
(posted: women's field previews; coming: previews for women's track, men's field)
Men’s 100 Meters: Bromell poised for gold
WJR: 9.97, Trayvon Bromell, USA/Baylor, 2014
AJR: 9.97, Trayvon Bromell, USA/Baylor, 2014
CR: 10.05, Adam Gemili, GBR, 2012
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Adam Gemili, GBR, 10.05 (2-Aaron Ernst, 4-Tyreek Hill)
2010: Dexter Lee, JAM, 10.21 (2-Charles Silmon, 4-Michael Granger)
2008: Dexter Lee, JAM, 10.40 (3-Terrell Wilks, DQ-SF2-Antonio Sales)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 10.28 / 10.43
2010: 10.28 / 10.71
2008: 10.45 / 10.59
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
1. Trayvon Bromell, USA/Baylor, 9.97 (9.77w)
3. Yoshihide Kiryu, JAP, 10.05 (10.01 in 2013)
4. Zharnel Hughes, AIA, 10.12
5. Jevaughn Minzie, JAM, 10.16
6. Michael O’Hara, JAM, 10.19
6. Jalen Miller, USA/Ole Miss, 10.19
Analysis: With Trayvon Brommel and Trentavis Friday, the USA could have had a chance to achieve a level of supremacy in men’s short sprints – at least at the Junior level – that it hasn’t had in some time. With Brommel and either Jalen Miller (Ole Miss frosh) or Kendal Williams (Stanton Prep, FL senior), there’s still a great chance to claim gold and possibly a medal of another color. Americans have won gold just three times here in 14 championships, in 1986, 1988 and 2004 – the year Ivory Williams and Demi Omole fashioned a 1-2 finish.
So Bromell could be the first U.S. sprinter to top the 100 podium in 10 years. He was a 10.27 dasher as a St. Petersburg Gibbs, FL senior in 2013, with a tantalizing 9.99w at altitude (Great Southwest) to his credit. As a Baylor frosh, however, he’s ascended to the level of consistency in the 10.00-10.05 range with PRs of 9.97 – the new World Junior Record as he won the NCAA champs – and 9.77w. Friday delivered a stunner in the USATF Juniors semis, hitting a HSR 10.00, but he false-started the final while Bromell won in 10.07.
The provisional entries have both Kendal Williams and Jalen Miller – 3rd and 4th in the Juniors final at 10.27 and 10.29 – entered. Miller actually has a 10.19 PR and Williams is also in the 200, where he was 2nd to Friday (see below), so it seems likely that Miller will get a chance.
Given all that, no assumptions should be made that the Americans have got it in the bag. Japan has a stunner of their own in Yoshihide Kiryu, who just missed the WJR with his 10.01 last year and has done 10.05 so far in 2014. In many years, he would be the sprint story of the Championships and he may still be. Powerful Jamaica will counter with the duo of Jevaughn Menzie and Michael O’Hara – at 10.16 and 10.19. O’Hara was 4th in the World Youth 100 last year (and won the 200), while Menzie will be running his first global meet. Another major medal contender is Zharnel Hughes of Anguilla, who was a neophyte two years ago in Barcelona, but is now a seasoned 10.12 performer.
Men’s 200 Meters: Friday hopes to break U.S. drought
WJR: 19.93, Usain Bolt, JAM, 2004
AJR: 20.13, Roy Martin, TX HS, 1985
CR: 20.28, Andrew Howe, ITA, 2004
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Delanno Williams, TKS, 20.48 (2-Aaron Ernest, 3-Tyreek Hill)
2010: Shota Iizuka, JPN, 20.67 (3-SF1-Oliver Bradwell, 5-SF3-Eric Harris)
2008: Christophe Lemaitre, FRA, 20.83 (4-Curtis Mitchell, 6-Antonio Sales)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 20.54 / 21.06
2010: 21.00 / 21.12
2008: 20.96 / 21.02
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
1. Zharnel Hughes, AIA, 20.32
2. Trentavis Friday, USA, 20.33
3. Jevaughn Minzie, JAM, 20.37
4. Michael O’Hara, JAM, 20.50
5. Kendal Williams, USA, 20.55
8. Yuri Koike, JPN, 20.61
Analysis: At least as much as the 100, this is a fascinating event, for so many reasons – and with huge storylines for American fans. Even more so than the century, Team USA has struggled in this event with no golds since 1994 and a medal drought from 2004 through 2010 before the silver-bronze effort of Aaron Ernest and Tyreek Hill in Barcelona.
Enter Trentavis Friday. While the Cherryville, NC senior false-started himself out of the 100 picture at the USATF Juniors – after a World #2 and HSR 10.00 in the prelims – he blasted a redemptive (and thoroughly eye-popping) 20.04w in the 200. Friday may sit at #2 on the WJ half-lap list at 20.33 (legal times), .01 behind Zharnel Hughes of Anguilla, but anyone who saw him a few weeks ago in Eugene would be hard-pressed not to pick him to win the first American 200 gold in 20 years.
But make no mistake, Friday – also the dominating NBNI and NBNO champ – will have to be at the top of his game to win. Likely to be doubling back from the 100 will be Hughes and the Jamaican duo of Jevaughn Minzie and Michael O’Hara. The former is also under 20.40 this year legally, while the latter won World Youth gold last summer. Then there’s U.S. teammate Kendal Williams, who was 2nd in both dashes at Juniors but will likely run in this event and the 4x1, with Jalen Miller running the 100. The Stanton Prep, FL senior has bests of 20.55 and 20.46w and, especially if fresh, could help give America two medals here again. And, the meet record of 20.28 and AJR of 20.13 are in real danger.
Men’s 400 Meters: Cedenio eyes sub-45
WJR: 43.87, Steve Lewis, USA, 1988
AJR: 43.87, Steve Lewis, USA, 1988
CR: 44.66, Hamdan Al-Bishi, KSA, 2000
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Luguelin Santos, DOM, 44.85 (2-Arman Hall, 3-Aldrich Bailey)
2010: Kirani James, GRN, 45.89 (3-Errol Nolan, 5-Josh Mance)
2008: Marcus Boyd, USA, 45.53 (3-O’Neal Wilder)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 45.52 / 46.49
2010: 46.36 / 47.02
2008: 45.76 / 47.13
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
1. Machel Cedenio, TTO, 45.23
2. Michael Cherry, USA, 45.37
3. Tyler Brown, USA/Eastern Mich. U., 45.74
4. Alexander Lerionka Sampao, KEN, 45.84A
6. Abbas Abubaker, BRN, 45.93
7. Berand Koekemoer, RSA, 45.97A
Analysis: The past two championships have seen two of the all-time Junior 400 greats capture titles: Kirani James of Grenada in 2010 and Luquelin Santos of the Dominican Republic in 2012; they now stand #2 and #3 on the all-time Junior list. Now Machel Cedenio of Trinidad and Tobago, 5th in Barcenlona behind Santos two years ago, may be poised to become the next great, young 1-lapper. He ran 45.93 last year and has improved to World #1 45.23 this year. Cedenio may hope to emulate countryman Renny Quow, the 2006 WJ champ.
Team USA has been more successful here than in the short dashes, winning six times with the last being Marcus Boyd’s 2008 victory. The last time, in fact, that an American did not medal was in 2000. World #2 Michael Cherry – a Florida State frosh who was the 2013 NBN champ both in and out – looked ready to lead Team USA to Eugene, but he was 3rd by .01 at USATF Juniors. He’s still entered, but the top two at Juniors and more likely to start are Tyler Brown of Eastern Michigan and Lamar Bruton of Ohio State. They ran 45.74 and 46.11 ahead of Cherry a few weeks ago here; Bruton was on the Pan Am Junior team last year while Brown is simply a fast-rising talent who ran “just” 47.08 as a prep last year.
There are three other entrants globally who have beaten 46 this year, but keep your eyes open as well for those who did LAST year – especially 2013 World Youth champ Michael Manley of Jamaica, 45.89 last year but just 46.24 this year. Also, Ali Khamis Khamis of Bahrain hit 45.65 in 2013 and Nobuya Koto of Japan 45.69 – even if both are yet to beat 46 in 2014.
Men’s 800 Meters: Kipketer looks for WY/WJ double
WJR: 1:42.69, Abubaker Kaki, SUD, 2008
AJR: 1:44.9h, Jim Ryun, U. of Kansas, 1966
CR: 1:43.79, Nijel Amos, BOT, 2012
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Nijel Amos, BOT, 1:43.79 (7-SF2-Shaquille Walker, 6-H1-Tanner Sork)
2010: David Mutinda Mutua, KEN, 1:46.41 (2-Cas Loxsom, 3-Robby Andrews)
2008: Abubaker Kaki, SUD, 1:45.60 (6-SF3-Elijah Greer, 8-H2-Donte Holmes)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 1:44.79 / 1:47.77
2010: 1:47.00 / 1:48.38
2008: 1:47.57 / 1:49.25
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
2. Alfred Kipketer, KEN, 1:45.67 (1:44.2h)
3. Joshua Tiampati Masikonde, KEN, 1:45.85
5. Nikolaus Franzmair, AUT, 1:46.78
8. Mamush Lencha, ETH, 1:46.88
9. Andreas Almgren, SWE, 1:46.99
10. Jena Umar, ETH, 1:47.00
…
19. Tre’Tez Kinnaird, USA/Indiana U., 1:47.99
27. Myles Marshall, TX HS, 1:48.43
Analysis: The 2010 and 2012 World Junior 800s were groundbreaking, but in very different ways. The 2-lapper four years ago in Moncton saw Cas Loxsom and Robby Andrews win the first-ever medals for Team USA (silver and bronze); in fact, they were only the 3rd and 4th Americans ever to make the final. That year, no one broke 1:46. In 2012, it took a historically fast 1:44.79 to medal as Nijel Amos of Botswana broke the CR with a 1:43.79.
2014 might not be quite as torrid, but it should be fast – and Americans, as has been most often the case, will be hard-pressed to contend. The favorite is Alfred Kipketer of Kenya, World #2 at 1:45.67 – but with a 1:44.2 hand time that is unsurpassed – and the reigning World Youth champ. Given that four Kenyans have broken 1:46 this year – with Kipketer and Joshua Tiampati Maskikonde (1:45.85) the two entered – and no one else has bettered 1:46.7, it’s hard to pick against a 1-2 finish for the African nation.
Can Americans Tre’Tez Kinnaird (Indiana frosh) and Myles Marshall (Kingwood, TX junior) become the 5th and 6th Americans to make the final? Kinnaird has the experience of representing Team USA at the 2011 World Youths and making the semis. Marshall, who also won the Youth Olympic Trials back in April, is not quite as experienced – but he’s gaining that experience oh so fast and has talent to burn. His 1:48.43 at Juniors just nipped his father John’s family prep PR (1:48.44) – the same John Marshall who later made the 1984 U.S. Olympic team with a 1:43.92.
Men’s 1500 Meters: No Kwemoi, but KEN and MAR will duke it out
WJR: 3:28.81, Ronald Kwemoi, KEN, 2014
AJR: 3:36.1h, Jim Ryun, U. of Kansas, 1966
CR: 3:35.53, Abdalaati Iguider, MOR, 2004
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Hamza Driouch, QAT, 3:39.04 (7-H1-Isaac Yorks, 11-H2-Austin Mudd)
2010: Caleb M. Ndiku, KEN, 3:37.30 (12-SF2-Elias Gedyon, 6-SF3-Peter Callahan)
2008: Imad Touil, ALG, 3:47.40 (8-Evan Jager, 5-H2-Duncan Phillips)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 3:40.60 / 3:46.37
2010: 3:38.91 / 3:44.05
2008: 3:47.65 / 3:47.71
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
3. Hassan Ghachoui, MAR, 3:38.56
5. Abdi Waiss Mouhyadin, DJI, 3:40.02
6. Oussama Nabil, MAR, 3:40.07
7. Thiago Andre, BRA, 3:40.59
11. Shaun Wylllie, GBR, 3:41.43
...
25. Patrick Joseph, USA/Va. Tech, 3:43.70
--- Grant Fisher, USA/MI HS, 3:46.71
Analysis: It would be quite a thrill for the fans in Eugene if they could see the world’s top Junior in the 1,500. That would be the remarkable Ronald Kwemoi, the latest in an endless line of prodigal Kenyans, who ran a jaw-dropping 3:28.81 for 3rd at the Monaco Diamond League this past Friday. But no, he won’t be at the World Juniors, obviously ready to compete at the next level. Similarly, four of the other Kenyans in the WJ top 10 are not among those who run here and, in fact, the WJ list is only moderately useful in handicapping this event.
The Kenyans who will be in Eugene are very good, though. Hillary Cheruiyot Ngetich has only run 3:43.10 outdoors, but also hit 3:40.26 indoors and 3:35.87 last year. Two years ago in Barcelona, he was the silver medalist. Jonathan Kiplimo Sawe is at 3:42.59 this year, but 3:38.61 last year. Meanwhile, the top performers in the field this year are Hassan Ghachoui of Morocco at 3:38.56, Abdi Waiss Mouhyadin of Djibouti at 3:40.02, and Ghachoui’s teammate, Oussama Nabil at 3:40.07. If you’re thinking Kenya-Morocco dual meet, you may be right.
Meanwhile, how about Team USA? Can Grant Fisher wow us like he did last summer at the World Youths? The Grand Blanc, MI rising senior followed his surprising 9th-place finish in Donetsk with an unbeaten 2013-14 among preps, including a 4:02.02 mile best (3:46.71 at 1,500). His only defeat at all was to Patrick Joseph (Virginia Tech soph) at Juniors, as the collegian outkicked him, 3:49.76 to 3:50.51. It’s possible that Joseph with his 3:43.70 PR and Fisher, with his WY experience, could make the final – but expecting much more is probably too much. The best-ever finishes by Team USA were fifths by Jason Pyrah (1988) and Gabe Jennings (1998). Fisher, however, will still be eligible for this meet in 2016.
Men’s 3000 Meter Steeplechase: Kenya continues dominance
WJR: 7:58.66, Saif Saaeed Shaheen, KEN, 2001
AJR: 8:33.8h, John Gregorek, Georgetown, 1979
CR: 8:06.10, Conseslus Kipruto, Kenya, 2012
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Conseslus Kipruto, KEN, 8:06.10 (11-Edward Owens, 10-H2-Darren Fahy)
2010: Jonathan M. Ndiku, KEN, 8:23.48 (10-Jared Berman, 15-H1-Dakota Peachee)
2008: Jonathan M. Ndiku, KEN, 8:17.28 (9-Dylan Knight, 10-Curtis Carr)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 8:30.14 / 8:56.15
2010: 8:37.02 / 8:55.77
2008: 8:25.14 / 8:55.28
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
2. Titus Kipruto Kibiego, KEN, 8:22.46
3. Barnabas Kipyego, KEN, 8:24.10
4. Meresa Kahsay, ETH, 8:26.08
7. Soufiane El Bakkali, MAR, 8:32.66
8. Tumisang Monnatlala, RSA, 8:38.70
13. Ali Messaouidi, ALG, 8:43.87
…
--- Bryce Miller, USA/U. Mo.-Kansas City, 9:01.37
--- Bailey Roth, USA/CO HS, 9:03.92
Analysis: John Kibet Koech, a Kenyan-born athlete now representing Bahrain, is this year’s top steeplechaser at 8:19.99, with six races at 8:26 or better. But he’s staying at the senior level where he’s been competing all season, so it’s likely that the Kenyan entries actually representing Kenya – Titus Kipruto Kibiego and Barnabas Kipyego – will give their country its 14th gold medal in 15 World Junior Championships. Kibiego won bronze in the World Youth 1,500 last summer, but moved up successfully with his 8:22.46 at the Kenyan trials - #2 on the WJ list. Neither should threaten the 8:06.10 CR from 2012 that countryman Conseslus Kipruto – who became history’s #2 Junior steepler in 2013 – put up in Barcelona, but they should roll just the same.
Ethiopia’s Meresa Kahsay, the only other entry under 8:30, is the favorite for bronze. South Africa and Morocco have multiple athletes who could compete for at least the top 4-8 places, but have each entered just a single athlete: Soufiane El Bakkali and Tumisang Monnatlala, respectively – both sub-8:40 talents.
U.S. distance fans should watch with significant interest to see how prep star Bailey Roth can fare in his second global championship. As a Coronado, CO junior in 2013, he made a stunning big-meet debut to win NBNO (2k ST) and went on to win the Youth Trials and take 7th at the WYC. A relatively quiet senior year followed until he blasted an HSR 5:41.67 2kST to win again at NBNO last month, then debuted at 3kST at USATF Juniors with a 9:03.92 – despite a fall. Recent history shows he’ll have to break 9:00 to make the final, so his work will be cut out for him – but the potential is there. Roth would still be a junior next year, but will likely have to settle for the Pan Am Jrs if he wants to rep Team USA. UMKC frosh Bryce Miller has run 9:01 and was close behind Roth at Juniors, so he has a shot at making the finals, too. The best U.S. finish ever was fifth by Chris Dugan in 1998.
Men’s 5000 Meters: Letoyie and Kipyeko bring in sub-13:20s
WJR: 12:52.61, Eliud Kipchoge, KEN, 2002
AJR: 13:25.46, German Fernandez, Okla. State, 2009
CR: 13:08.57, Abreham Cherkos, KEN, 2008
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Muktar Edris, ETH, 13:38.95 (12-Kirubel Erassa, 13-Kyle King)
2010: David K. Bett, KEN, 13:23.76 (11-Trevor Dunbar)
2008: Abreham Cherkos, ETH, 13:08.57 (11-Matt Centrowitz, 16-Ryan Collins)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 13:40.52 / (straight final)
2010: 13:28.92 / (straight final)
2008: 13:11.97 / (straight final)
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
1. Moses Mukono Letoyie, KEN, 13:19.26
5. Phillip Kipyeko, UGA, 13:29.54 (13:16.92 in ’13)
10. Yasin Haji, ETH, 13:32.20
12. Fredrick Kipkosgei Kiptoo, KEN, 13:33.6h
20. Tsegay Tuemay, ERI, 13:45.98 (13:20.89 in ’13)
23. Soufiane El Bakkali, MAR, 13:47.76
…
--- Colby Gilbert, USA/U. of Washington, 14:07.13
--- Brian Barraza, USA/U. of Houston, 14:13.54
Analysis: If the low number of highly ranked athletes entered in the meet surprises you, remember that countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Eritrea and Morocco dominate the lists and you can only enter two athletes per country. Also, the selection meets don’t always produce the fastest times and some of those selected haven’t had a chance to burn one in good conditions yet.
That said, it happens that the two fastest entries also have championship experience to rely on that makes them reasonable favorites. Uganda’s Phillip Kipyeko was 6th in the 2012 WJ race in Barcelona, then lowered his PR to 13:16.92 last year. This year, his best is 13:29.54, which still ranks him 2nd among entries. Kenyan Moses Mukono Letoyie was 8th in Barcelona and leads entries in terms of 2014 marks with a 13:19.26. It’s also interesting to note that in 2012, there had been three incredible Junior performers between 12:47 and 13:03 (none of whom raced World Juniors); this year, no one has been nearly that fast and the field more accurately reflects the best of what’s out there. Of course, it should also be noted that Ronald Kwemoi of Kenya is WJ#2 with a 13:21.53 PR and, given his recent WJR at 3:28.81 for 1,500, can probably approach 13 flat.
Given that a time like 13:40-13:50 could possibly place well into the top 8, one laments that outstanding collegians like Stanford frosh (and 2013 NBNO 2M champ while in HS) Sean McGorty with a 13:37.64 PR and Colorado frosh Ben Saarel (sub-8:50 3,200 as a prep) at 13:48.97 didn’t extend their seasons. They might have been able to match or better the all-time U.S. best finishes of 9th in this event (Eric Mastalir 1986 and Galen Rupp 2004). Instead, it should be a great learning experience (and, who knows, maybe better) for Washington frosh Colby Gilbert (14:07.13) and U. of Houston frosh Brian Barraza (14:13.54).
Men’s 10000 Meters: Ugandan has only sub-28
WJR: 26:41.75, Samuel Wanjiru, KEN, 2005
AJR: 28:15.82, Galen Rupp, OR, 2005
CR: 27:30.85, Josphat Bett Kipkoech, KEN, 2008
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Yigrem Demelash, ETH, 28:16.07 (11-Jacob Kildoo, 15-Ryan Pickering)
2010: Dennis C. Masai, KEN, 27:53.88 (6-Parker Stinson, 16-Graham Bazell)
2008: Josphat Bett Kipkoech, KEN, 27:30.85 (17-Donn Cabral, 19-Dan Dunbar)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 28:30.47 / (straight final)
2010: 28:14.55 / (straight final)
2008: 28:07.98 / (straight final)
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
1. Joshua Cheptegei, UGA, 27:56.26
3. Tsegaye Mekonnen, ETH, 28:15.5h
6. Yihunilign Adane, ETH, 28:30.4h
7. Elvis Kipchoge Cheboi, KEN, 28:33.73
8. Nicholas Mboroto Kosimbei, KEN, 28:37.58
9. Abdallah Kibet Mande, UGA, 28:42.1h
…
24. Brendan Shearn, USA/U. of Penn, 29:49.04
--- Jonathan Green, USA/Georgetown U., 30:54.62
Analysis: If the list of top six entries make the 10k appear like a Uganda-Ethiopia-Kenya tri-meet, well, that’s probably what this event will be – with storylines worth following for each country. In Joshua Cheptegei, Uganda has the only sub-28 runner this year, and a chance to win gold for the 2nd time in meet history (Boniface Kiprop, 2004). In Tsegaye Mekonnen, Ethiopia has both an athlete whose been to WJs before (5th in the 2012 5,000) and who has extremely intriguing potential after an eye-popping WJ best 2:04:32 marathon in Dubai early this year.
And, finally, in Elvis (Elvis?) Kipchoge Cheboi and Nicholas Mboroto Kosimbei, Kenya has two athletes who they hope will take their country back to the top of the medal stand they enjoyed the previous two championships (2008, 2010) before Ethiopian Yigrem Demelash won in Barcelona.
Team USA has had just two top-10 finishes here, which is why it was such a thrill to see Texas prep Parker Stinson take 6th in the 2010 race – the highest U.S. finish and best time ever in the event at 29:32.23. Collegians Brendan Shearn (Penn frosh) and Jonathan Green (Georgetown frosh) will probably need at least 29:45 to get into the top 10.
Men’s 10000 Meter Racewalk: Matsunaga consistent under 40:00
WJR: 38:46.4h, Viktor Burayev, RUS, 2000
AJR: 41:23.14, Tyler Sorenson CA, 2011
CR: 39:35.01, Stanislav Emelyanov, RUS, 2008
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Eider Arevalo, COL, 40:09.74 (13-Tyler Sorensen)
2010: Valery Filipchuk, RUS, 40:43.17 (7-Trevor Barron, 15-Tyler Sorensen)
2008: Stanislav Emelyanov, RUS, 39:35.01 (No USA)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 40:16.87 / (straight final)
2010: 40:50.37 / (straight final)
2008: 40:29.57 / (straight final)
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking (road))
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
2. Daisuke Matsunaga, JPN 39:45 (road), 39:18.71 (track)
3. Nikolay Markov, RUS, 39:55 (road)
4. Diego Garcia, ESP, 40:10 (road)
5. Gang Xu, CHN, 40:34 (road)
6. Rui Wang, CHN, 40:36 (road)
8. Paolo Yurivilca, PER, 40:47 (road)
…
--- Anthony Peters, USA/Elgin Sharks, 45:54
Analysis: Most instructive in handicapping this race are probably the World Cup road results from early May, where China’s Wenkui Gao won in 39:40 and Japan’s Daisuke Matsunaga was 2nd at 39:45. Gao is not entered here, but Matsunaga also tops the world list on the track with the only sub-40 of the year at 39:18.71 and also walked 39:08.23 last year – so he gets the favorite tag.
Nikolay Markov of Russia was 3rd at the World Cup at 39:55, ahead of the 40:10 from Spain’s Diego Garcia – the 2013 World Youth bronze medalist. Russian Maxim Krasnov won silver in that World Youth race and is his country’s other entry here. He was DQ’d at the World Cup. China’s entries, Gang Xu and Rui Wang, figure to be top contenders as well.
2010 and 2012 were glory days for U.S. walkers. At Moncton four years ago, Trevor Barron and Tyler Sorensen were seventh and 15th, with Barron setting the American Junior Record. Sorensen reset that mark in 2011 at World Youths, where he was fifth, then overcame injury to finish 13th in Barcelona. This year, Anthony Peters is the U.S. entry. He has some experience after finishing 29th at the World Cup, so will be looking to improve.
Men’s 110 Meter Hurdles: Great Belocian-Omoregie duel at hand
WJR: 13.12, Liu Xaing, CHN, 2002
AJR: 13.08, Wayne Davis, NC HS, 2009
CR: 13.18, Yordan L. O’Farrill, CUB, 2012
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Yordan L. Farrill, CUB, 13.18 (6-Dondre Echols, 4-SF3-Joshua Thompson)
2010: Pascal Martinot-Lagarde, FRA, 13.52 (5-Caleb Cross, 4-SF2-Jonathan Cabral)
2008: Konstantin Shabanov, RUS, 13.27 (2-Booker Nunley, 4-SF2-Ron Brookins)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 13.29 / 13.62
2010: 13.59 / 13.77
2008: 13.51 / 13.62
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
1. Wilhelm Belocian, FRA, 13.15
2. David Omoregie, GBR, 13.17
3. Tyler Mason, JAM, 13.25
4. Taio Kanai, JPN, 13.33
5. Nick Anderson, USA/U. of Kentucky, 13.37
6. Benjamin Sedecias, FRA, 13.40
T6. Isaiah Moore, USA/NC HS, 13.40
…
8. Theophile (Misana) Viltz, USA/CA HS, 13.42
Analysis: A great battle for European and global Junior supremacy is shaping up between France’s Wilhelm Belocian and Great Britain’s Davis Omoregie. They stand 1-2 on the yearly list at 13.15 and 13.17 (#3 and #4 all-time Juniors) and each has a second mark under 13.30 as well. Belocian won European Juniors last year at 13.18, was 3rd in Barcelona (13.29) and won bronze at the 2011 WY, too. Omoregie is a more recent bloomer and will be in his first global championship, improving from 13.45 to 13.17 this year.
Jamaica’s Tyler Mason, the Carifta Games champ this year, is at 13.25 and very capable of winning it all, too. France has a shot at a second medal if WJ#6 Benjamin Sedecias can break through.
The last American to medal was Booker Nunley in 2008; the last to win was Aries Merritt in 2004. The entry list has three Americans listed after the very close finish at the USATF Juniors that saw U. of Kentucky’s Nick Anderson nip Misana Viltz (Long Beach Milikan, CA senior) and Isaiah Moore (Cummings, NC senior), 13.37 to 13.42 and 13.44. Moore is the U.S. prep leader at 13.40 with his NBNO victory and made the World Youth final last year. He was not named to the team originally, so one wonders if he might be replacing Viltz or Anderson for some reason. In either case, both Americans should make the final and at least one could medal – but it will probably take a PR to do so.
Men’s 400 Meter Hurdles: Hyde a big favorite
WJR: 48.02, Danny Harris, USA, 1984
AJR: 48.02, Danny Harris, USA, 1984
CR: 48.51, Kerron Clement, USA, 2004
Recent Champs (plus/other top U.S. finishers)
2012: Eric Futch, USA, 50.24 (3-SF2-Gregory Coleman)
2010: Jehue Gordon, TRI, 49.30 (7-SF2-Sheroid Evans, 4-H5-Steven White)
2008: Jeshua Anderson, USA, 48.68 (2-Johnny Dutch)
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 50.47 / 51.11
2010: 50.22 / 51.22
2008: 49.56 / 51.48
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
(including/plus Team USA, in bold)
1. Jaheel Hyde, JAM, 49.49
2. Tim Holmes, USA/Baylor, 49.90
3. Kenneth Selmon, USA/GA HS, 50.13
4. Guozhong Wang, CHN, 50.61
5. Khalifah Rosser, USA, 50.62
6. Jose L. Gaspar, CUB, 50.65
Analysis: Few events in the Championships have more clear-cut medal favorites than the men’s 400H. In the role of favorite is the supremely talented Jamacian, Jaheel Hyde. The 17-year-old wunderkind is probably his country’s top male athlete here and one of the biggest young stars of the meet. After winning the World Youth 110H last year, he hopes to become Jamaica’s first gold medalist in this event at WJ.
While Hyde will be very difficult to beat, Team USA has a great 1-2 punch to battle him and win a pair of medals. USATF Jr champ Tim Holmes was the NBNO 400H runner-up and 110H 3rd-place finisher last year at St. Petersburg Lakewood, FL, and this year has gotten down to 49.90 and was 4th at the NCAAs. And after winning World Youth bronze last year, Kenny Selmon (Pace Academy, GA senior) won this year’s NBNO 400H crown and was 2nd behind Holmes at Juniors at 50.13. Khalifah Rosser, the Pan Am Juniors champ last year and 3rd at Juniors, is also listed in the entries and if for some reason wound up running would be a medal contender.
Team USA has a great history in this event, including gold in 2012 and 1-2 sweeps in 2006 and 2008.
Men’s 4x100 Meter Relay: Americans could chase WJR
WJR: 38.66, Team USA, 2004
AJR: 38.66, Team USA, 2004
CR: 38.66, Team USA, 2004
Recent Champs
2012: USA, 38.67
2010: USA, 38.93
2008: USA, 38.98
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 39.02 / 39.94
2010: 39.72 / 40.07
2008: 39.70 / 40.40
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
2. Jamaica, 39.38
3. Japan, 39.49
5. Thailand, 39.74
6. Chinese Taipei, 39.91
7. Great Britain, 39.97
T9. Nigeria, 40.06
T9. Trinidad & Tobago, 40.06
Analysis: The current world list is only moderately relevant, with many countries – most notably the U.S., not having raced a full-strength team yet. What is relevant is that while Jamaica has long since passed the U.S. as the typical favorite at the senior WC and Olympic levels, the Americans still dominate at the Junior level. Team USA is favored to win for the sixth time in the last seven Championships, especially if Trentavis Friday – the new 100 HSR-setter who false-started the USATF Junior final but won the 200 – is named to join Trayvon Bromell on the squad.
With Aaron Ernest and Tyreek Hill leading the way, the Americans came within .01 of their WJR in 2012 with a 38.67. Could they break the 2004 mark this time around? Joining Bromell and, hopefully, Friday will be Jalen Miller (Ole Miss frosh), who may also run the open 100; Kendal Williams (Stanton Prep, FL senior), who was 2nd in both dashes and will contest one or both; Terry Jernigan (East Ridge, FL senior), who has run 10.27; and Michael Wells (Cleveland NJROTC Acad., MO senior) who has run 10.49.
The competition, however, is hardly going to hand it over to them. Jamaica, which ran 38.97 for silver two years ago and won in 1998 and 2006, will be tough as ever with Jevaughn Minzie and Michael O’Hara leading the way. And 2012 bronze medalist Japan, 39.02 in Barcelona, could be a sub-39 threat with their 10.01 man Yoshihide Kiryu.
Men’s 4x400 Meter Relay: Another USA win expected
WJR: 3:01.09, Team USA, 2004
AJR: 3:01.09, Team USA, 2004
CR: 3:01.09, Team USA, 2004
Recent Champs
2012: USA, 3:03.99
2010: USA, 3:04.76
2008: USA, 3:03.86
Recent marks to medal / make final
2012: 3:06.32 / 3:07.88
2010: 3:06.49 / 3:08.32
2008: 3:06.47 / 3:09.23
Top Contenders (by 2014 IAAF World Ranking)
1. Trinidad & Tobago, 3:06.02
2. Nigeria, 3:06.21
3. Jamaica, 3:07.71
4. Germany, 3:07.74
6. Thailand, 3:08.89
7. Belgium, 3:09.60
Analysis: Team USA has won six in a row in this event and 12 of 14 overall. That trend shouldn’t change in Eugene. This American team might not have quite the talent of some of the past quartets, but with four in the 45.3 to 46.2 range – Michael Cherry (Florida State frosh), Tyler Brown (Eastern Mich. frosh), Lamar Bruton (Ohio State frosh), Josephus Lyles (T.C. Williams, VA soph), plus Miles Parish (Arizona frosh) and Ricky Morgan (Forest Park, VA senior) in the relay pool – they should get the job done.
Trinidad and Tobago, with a bronze from 2012 and top 400 star Machel Cedeni capable of a sub-45 carry, might be good choice as a top challenger. Others to watch closely are Nigeria, Jamaica, Germany and South Africa.
Photo credits (from top to bottom)
Trayvon Bromell by Joy Kamani
Trentavis Friday by Walter Pinion
Michael Manley by Joy Kamani
Alfred Kipketer by Vic Sailah, Photorun.net
Grant Fisher by Joy Kamani
Bailey Roth by Walter Pinion
Moses Mukono Letoyie by Vic Sailah, Photorun.net
Elvis Kipchoge Cheboi by Vic Sailah, Photorun.net
Wilhelm Belocian by Joy Kamani
Kenny Selmon by Walter Pinion
2012 US 4x1 by Joy Kamani
2012 US 4x4 by Joy Kamani
