2016 IAAF World U20 Champs 7/22 Preview: m200/400, w400H likely highlights
Here is our preview of the Friday events (7/22) at the 2016 World U20 Championships, July 19-24, in Bydgoszcz, Poland.
There may not be the depth of strong possibilties for medals that we saw Thursday, but Anna Cockrell leads the way into the women's 400 hurdles final for Team USA, while Michael Norman looks to rule the men's 200, and Wilbert London and Kahmari Montgomery are both medal hopefuls in the flat 400 for men. Robert Colantonio and Adam Kelly (both men's hammer), Samiyah Samuels and Bria Matthews (both women's LJ), and Darius Carbin (men's HJ) are other U.S. finalists hoping for career performances.
WOMEN’s TRACK
100m hurdles – Intriguing Duncan-Jones battle at hand
(qualifying 7/22, semis 7/23, final 7/24)
Records
Meet: 12.89, Kendell Williams USA 2014
WJR: 12.83p, Oluwatobiloba Amusan NIG 2016
AJR: 12.84, Tia Jones 2016
Top 5 Entries
(based on ’16 marks, plus additional U.S.)
1. Oluwatobiloba Amusan NIG 12.83
2. Tia Jones USA 12.84
3. Elvira Herman BLR 13.03
4. Alexis Duncan USA 13.04
5. Laura Valette FRA 13.19
Analysis: With 9 of the top 12 Juniors in the world, it’s a shame anyone had to stay home for Team USA. Three sub-13.10 girls were left in the carnage of the US Juniors. But the storylines of those who made it are rich. Tia Jones was a Youth age-group phenom for some years before she showed up at NBNO in ’15 and won as an 8th-grader. Her inconsistencies showed up in Greensboro this year as she was 4th (though 13.14 is still good!), but then in the semis at Juniors she freaked everyone out with her jaw-dropping 12.84.
Then Alexis Duncan, with motivation of her own, nipped Jones in the final, 13.04-13.05. Jones had been within .01 of the World Youth record at Cali last summer, before self-destructing in the final. Then beating Jones in Clovis was the culmination of her work to get back to that level. Bottom line: It could be a Jones-Duncan or Duncan-Jones 1-2 finish, but both are still inconsistent. UTEP collegian Oluwatobiloba Amusan of Nigeria also has a super-fast time this year (12.83, altitude aided) and 13.03 performer Elvira Herman of Belarus could also contend.
Team USA History: Americans have won five golds here and some lesser medals, as well. Topping the podium have been Joyce Bates in ’96, Ronetta Alexander in ’04, Teona Rodgers in ’08, Morgan Snow in ’12 and Kendell Williams two years ago in Eugene.
1500m run – Efraimson’s unfinished business
(qualifying 7/22, final 7/24)
Records
Meet: 4:04.96, Faith Kipyegon KEN 2012
WJR: 3:51.34, Yinglai Lang CHN 1997
AJR: 4:03.39, Alexa Efraimson 2015
Top 5 Entries
(based on ’16 marks, plus additional U.S.)
1. Adanech Anbesa ETH 4:05.22
2. Fantu Worku ETH 4:05.84
3. Alexa Efraimson USA 4:06.38 (4:03.39 in ’15)
4. Konstanze Klosterhalfen GER 4:06.91
5. Beatha Nishimwe RWA 4:08.75
…
6. Christine Aragon USA 4:09.27
Analysis: It’s plain and simple, Alexa Efraimson wants another shot at this. She was 4th in the ’13 World Youth 1,500 – the first USA runner to ever medal there – but then 6th (behind teammate Elise Cranny’s 4th) in her first World Junior meet two years ago in Eugene. Efraimson would turn pro and then while still in HS last spring, break Mary Cain’s American Junior record in the event. Now in 2016, she’s good enough that she was a serious contender at the Olympic Trials for the U.S. before fading to 6th. She’s 3rd on the entry list based on ’16 best times, but her 4:03.39 from last year is faster than anyone else here has run.
Ethiopians Adanech Anbesa and Fantu Worku are the top two for the year. Their countrywoman Gudaf Tsegay, who won silver in ’14, is still eligible but is focusing on Rio. Also watch for Germany’s Konstanze Klosterhalfen, who has run 4:06.91 – but was already 3rd in the 3,000 this week. Kenyan’s Winifredah Nzisa and Joyline Chepkoech aren’t as high on the list, but will be running at sea level for the first time here. Christina Aragon, the #2 high schooler this year with a 4:09.27 PR that would have been considered unthinkable for a prep not too many years ago, should make the final and could be top six or better.
Team USA History: The U.S. has never medaled in this event, with the best finishes being 4th and 6th by Jordan Hasay and Alex Kosinski in ’08, then the same 4-6 by Elise Cranny and Alexa Efraimson two years ago. Also, Hasay was 4th again in ’10 and Mary Cain was 6th in ’12.
4x100m relay – Hill hopes to lead USA to 7th straight
(qualifying 7/22, final 7/23)
Records
Meet: 43.40, Jamaica 2002
WJR: 43.29, USA 2006
AJR: 43.29, 2006
Top 5 Entries
(based on 2016 times)
1. Germany 44.25
2. Jamaica 44.30
3. France 43.68
4. Great Britain 44.56
5. Netherlands 44.72
Analysis: With last night’s 100 meter champ Candace Hill planning to anchor in the final, the USA should extend its string of six straight wins in this meet. Jayla Kirkland and Celera Barnes are likely to run here, too, and there are a few possibilities for the other leg – most likely Taylor Bennett or Alexis Duncan. As always, it’s all about the exchanges and not dropping the stick – something the Juniors have done better than the Seniors. Jamaica, Poland and Trinidad & Tobago are some likely contenders..
Team USA History: The Americans have won the last six titles here and eight overall, though Jamaica holds the meet record from 2002.
3,000m steeplechase – Chespol the woman to beat
(7/19 was qualifying, 7/22 final)
Records
Meet: 9:31.35, Christine Kambua Muyanga KEN 2008
WJR: 9:20.37, Birtukan Adamu ETH 2011
AJR: 9:49.25, Devin Clark 2016
Top 5 Entries
(plus additional U.S.)
1. Celliphine Chepteek Chespol KEN 9:24.73
2. Peruth Chemutai UGA 9:31.34
3. Tigist Getnet Mekonnen BRN 9:31.84
4. Anna Emilie Moller DEN 9:41.43
5. Devin Clark USA 9:49.25
Analysis: Celliphine Chepteek Chespol of Kenya is the favorite both on the current season’s watch – she leads the world at 9:24.73 this year – and by experience, having won the World Youth title over 2k last summer. Peruth Chemutai of Uganda and Tigist Getnet Mekonnen of Burundi are next on the list, though Mekonnen actually ran faster last year at 9:20.65, barely missing the WJR. All three ran well in Tuesday’s qualifying.
American Devin Clark would have been a great bet to match or exceed the best-ever U.S. finish and perhaps even battle for a medal, but withdrew due to injury shortly before the meet.
Team USA History: Briana Nerud was 5th for Team USA in ’12, the best finish ever by an American. Elinor Purrier was 9th in ’14.
200m dash – Williams consistent under 23
(qualifying 7/22am, semis 7/22pm, final 7/23)
Records
Meet: 22.53, Anthonique Strachan BAH 2012
WJR: 22.18, Allyson Felix USA 2004
AJR: 22.18, Allyson Felix 2004
Top 5 Entries
(based on ’16 best times; plus additional U.S.)
1. Sada Williams BAR 22.61
2. Taylor Bennett USA 22.71
3. Jayla Kirkland USA 23.15
4. Mercy Ntia-Obong NGR 23.17
5. Edidong Ofonime Odiong BRN 23.18
Analysis: Sada Williams of Barbados has had a handful of sub-23s this year, both earlier in the spring during the Caribbean season and more recently in her national championships. American Taylor Bennett is the only other entry in that range, but her best time was early in the spring and in the USA Juniors, she was 2nd at 23.20 to Jayla Kirkland. Kirkland, in turn, has been in the 23.1 range consistently in recent weeks and has repped Team USA before – earning bronze in the World Youth 100 last spring. Kirkland is one of three, actually, who has run between 23.15 and 23.20. Candace Hill, had she chosen to double at US Juniors, would have been a likely favorite since she won World Youth last year and would have been the fastest entrant.
Team USA History: Two years ago, American prep Kaylin Whitney captured the title in Eugene, the 3rd gold for Team USA in the event – preceded by Shalonda Solomon in ’04 and Stormy Kendrick in ’10.
400m hurdles – Cockrell carries USA medal hopes
(qualifying was 7/20 and semis 7/21, final 7/22)
Records
Meet: 54.70, Lashinda Demus USA 2002
WJR: 54.15, Sydney McLaughlin USA 2016
AJR: 54.15, Sydney McLaughlin 2016
Top 5 Entries
(plus additional U.S.)
1. Anna Cockrell USA 55.89
2. Brandee’ Johnson USA 56.16
3. Shannon Kalawan JAM 56.29
4. Haruko Ishizuka JPN 56.75
5. Nicolee Foster JAM 56.99
UPDATE (after semis): Anna Cockrell has now paced competitors in both qualifying and the semis, her 56.10 in the 3rd semi last night being the fastest by more than a second. If she can go in the 55s, as anticipated, she should rule in the final. After that, it’s really wide-open for the other two medals, with Jamaica’s Shannon Kalawan either not showing her cards yet or not as fit as when she ran 56.29 earlier this year.
UPDATE (after qualifying): Team USA had mixed fortunes in Wednesday’s qualifying. Anna Cockrell, despite drawing lane 8, won heat 2 impressively with the overall fastest qualifier at 56.85. But 2nd American Brandee’ Johnson, entered when Olympian and World U20 record-holder Sydney McLaughlin withdrew to concentrate on Rio, did not advance in heat 3 – looking drained and out of rhythm, and running 5th at 1:00.58. Jamaican contender Shannon Kalawan was 2nd in heat 5 behind the impressive PR of Burundi’s Aminat Yusuf Jamal (56.94), while her sub-57 teammate Nicolee Foster also moved on, though less impressively.
Original analysis: When you can still bring to the line two previous international championship medalists, then it’s a lot easier to survive losing the best in the world. Yes, Team USA’s gain for the Rio Summer Olympics of new prep and Junior record-setter Sydney McLaughlin – now becoming one of the sport’s most celebrated new stars on all levels – is Team USA’s loss for Bydgoszcz and the U20 Champs. But the “loss” is immensely tempered by the fact that Team USA still has stars like Anna Cockrell and Brandee’ Johnson to bring to the game.
We’ve seen Johnson win 200 bronze at the ’14 Youth Olympics, then 400H bronze behind McLaughlin’s gold last year at World Youth. Cockrell is no less than the Pan American Junior champ. They stand 2-3 in the world in Team USA’s best event, so hopes of a gold-silver sweep are still very strong. The competition won’t make it easy, though. Jamaica has Shannon Kalawan and Nicolee Foster under 57 seconds, as well. And there are at least three other athletes capable of high 56 or low 57 times.
Team USA History: This has been a pretty strong event for Team USA, with golds by Lashinda Demus (2002), Takecia Jameson (2008) and Shamier Little two years ago. There have been several medals of other colors, too.
WOMEN’s FIELD
High Jump: Hruba, Levchenko step in for Cunningham
(qualifying 7/22, final 7/24)
Records
Meet: 2.00m/6-6.75, Alina Astafei ROM 1988
WJR: 2.01m/6-7, Olga Turchak RUS 1986 and Heike Balck GDR 1989
AJR: 1.97m/6-5.5, Vashti Cunningham USA 2016
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
T1. Michaela Hruba CZE 6-4.75
T1. Yuliya Levchenko UKR 6-4.75
3. Lada Pejchalova CZE 6-2.75
4. Ximena Lizbeth Esquival MEX 6-2.75
5. Salome Lang SUI 6-1.5
…
10. Nicole Greene USA 6-0.5
Analysis: With World Jr leader Vashti Cunningham having moved to Senior and Olympic competition, Michaela Hruba and Yuliya Levchenko are the co-favorites. Cunningham only attempted to compete in one Youth or Junior IAAF meet before turning pro, but Hruba has been a force the past three years, winning WY gold in Cali last year after WJ silver and Youth Olympic bronze in ’14. She hasn’t matched her PR yet outdoors, but has to be the fave. Levchenko will be formidable, too, though: She was the YOG champ in ’14.
Two other eligibles who have jumped 6-3 or better – Alina Skukh and ’14 WJ champ Morgan Lake – are also not here for various reasons. For Team USA, 2015 NBN double in/out champ Nicole Greene won USA Jrs after her frosh year at UNC and while she’s seeded 10th based on her seasonal best of 6-0.5, her career best of 6-1.5 puts her on the cusp of medal contention. She was the only American entered in Clovis to make the standard.
Team USA History: One American has medaled in this event at WJ: Sharon Day in ’04 with a bronze. Rachel McCoy just missed in ’14, taking 4th on a countback, while Hanna Willms was 5th in ’10.
Triple Jump: Matthews could also medal here
(qualifying 7/22, final 7/23)
Records
Meet: 14.62m/47-11.75, Tereza Marinova BUL 1996
WJR: 14.62m/47-11.75, Tereza Marinova BUL 1996
AJR: 14.15m/46-5.25, Keturah Orji USA 2015
(qualifying 7/22, final )
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Davisledis Velazco CUB 46-2.5
2. Bria Matthews USA 45-0.5
3. Mariya Ovchinnikova KAZ 44-7.5
4. Ting Chen CHN 44-5.25
5. Yanis David FRA 44-1.25
…
18. Chinne Okoronkwo USA 42-11.75i
Analysis: Davidledis Velazco, the Cuban who won the Barrientos Memorial during Team NSAF’s Caribbean trip back in May, is the favorite with her world-leading mark from that meet. If she’s in the 46-foot range again, it will be hard for anyone to stop her. Bria Matthews, as in the long jump, is a strong medal contender if she can overcome the fatigue of a long collegiate season and replicated her 45-foot form from earlier in the spring. Mariya Ovchinnikova is one of very few who also jumped at WY (7th) last year, while Yanis David will be trying to medal in both horizontals.
The NSAF Project Triple Jump’s Chinne Okoronkwo has competed for Team USA in three successive years now: The Youth Olympics in ’14, Pan American Juniors last year (bronze) and now here. Obviously, this competition will be the toughest yet and she’ll probably need mid-43s – well within her capabilities – to make the final.
Team USA History: The USA has never medaled in this event, with the previous best being a 6th-place finish by Ciarra Brewer in 2012. NSAF Project Triple Jumper Keturah Orji – a bronze medalist in ’13 at WY and an Olympian now – was 9th in the ’14 final and CSI alum Marshay Ryan was 7th.
Long Jump: Matthews and Samuels both have a shot
(qualifying was 7/21, final 7/22)
Records
Meet: 6.82m/22-4.5, Fiona May GBR 1988
WJR: 7.14m/23-5.25, Heike Dreschler GDR 1983
AJR: 6.83m/22-5, Kate Hall USA 2015
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
T1. Bria Matthews USA 21-3.5
T1. Sophia Weissenberg GER 21-3.5
T3. Samiyah Samuels, USA, 21-3.25i
T3. Yanis David FRA 21-3.25
T3. Hanne Maudens BEL 21-3.25
UPDATE (after qualifying): Sophia Weissenberg of Germany, ranked #2 among entrants, qualified with best mark yesterday at 20-9.75. Hilary Kpatcha of France and Kaiza Karlen of Sweden surprised with PRs of 20-9 and 20-7.75 for the next two spots. Americans Bria Matthews and Samiyah Samuels both made the final, but not by much at 20-1.5 and 19-11.5. They’ll have to step it up to contend today.
Original analysis: Based off her American Junior record 22-5 at NBNO last year, U.S. collegian Kate Hall would have been the big favorite. Even this year, she took the WJ lead with a 21-5.25 she leapt in qualifying at the Olympic Trials. But there’s the rub; Hall – who now has transferred from Iowa State to Georgia – competed only in the Trials this summer and not USA Juniors. With the event also missing Swedish prodigy Tilde Johansson (21-4, but too young for this meet!), the favorites’ roles fall to a German and another American: Sophie Weissenberg and Bria Matthews, respectively.
Matthews, a very good prep out of Georgia who didn’t seem to quite reach her potential there, has flourished at Georgia Tech in both horizontals. Her winning 21-.35 at USA Juniors puts her in a great chance to win the first-ever U.S. medal in the event, if not the first gold. Most accurately, though, this is anyone’s battle – including U.S. prep and NBNI champ Samiyah Samuels – as the top 8 jumpers are separated by only a few centimeters.
Team USA History: No American has medaled in this event, with Julia Yendork’s 4th in ’90 being the high water mark. In ’14, Quanesha Burks and Jazmin McCoy took 5th and 6th.
Heptathlon – World #3 Lagger tops entries
(7/21 and 7/22)
Records
Meet: 6,470 pts, Carolina Kluft SWE 2002
WJR: 6,542 pts, Carolina Kluft SWE 2002
AJR: 6,018 pts, Kendell Williams USA 2014
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Sarah Lagger AUT 5,776
2. Hanne Maudens BEL 5,709
3. Karin Strametz AUT 5,666
4. Weronika Grzelak POL 5,625
5. Bianca Salming SWE 5,596
…
17. Emma Fitzgerald USA 5,464
23. Kaylee Hinton USA 5,348
UPDATE (after 1st day): Adriana Rodriguez of Cuba, ranked 6th overall coming in, had a great first day with no weak events and leads by 181 points with 3,691. Top seed Sarah Lagger is 2nd at 3,510. Team USA’s Kaylee Hinton and Emma Fitzgerald sit 9th and 11th, respectively. Fitzgerald is strongest in the 2nd day with javelin and long jump being her best two events, while Hinton was also looking for the long jump to gain ground, as well. Rodriguez is strong enough in the LJ and 800 to probably hold on for the win at this point.
Original analysis: The two leaders on the World list – Alina Shukh and Morgan Lake, each with PRs well over 6,000 pts – are off the board either due to injury or senior team commitments for their countries. That leaves World #3 Sarah Lagger as the favorite. She was the Cali runner-up last year, hitting 5,992 with the Youth implements and hurdles and beating Skukh (who has since improved more with the Junior implements/hurdles). The other top contenders have moderate championship credentials and are solidly in that 5,500 range or better.
Emma Fitzgerald, the aforementioned Project Javelin senior, has made a spectacular return to top-level multis this year after dramatically improving her fitness level and staying reasonably healthy. She scored in the mid-5,400s twice in just over a week at NBNO and USA Jrs. Here, she’ll probably need to find another 100-200 points to be in serious medal contention, but her PRs suggest that’s possible. Kaylee Hinton had a disastrous no mark in the jav at USA Jrs, but because she had the standard she made the team. She was 4th at Pan Am Juniors last year, so she’s got high-level experience, too.
Team USA History: Kendra Reimer was 7th in ’98 for the top US finish ever in this event. Ashlee Moore was 13th and Shaina Burns 21st in ’14, while potential medalist Kendell Williams contested only the 100H.
MEN’s TRACK
800m run
(qualifying 7/22, semis 7/23, final 7/24)
Records
Meet: 1:43.79, Nigel Amos BOT 2012
WJR: 1:41.73, Nigel Amos BOT 2012
AJR: 1:43.55, Donavan Brazier, 2016
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Willy Kiplimo Tarbei KEN 1:44.84
2. Mostafa Smaili MAR 1:45.05
3. Kipyegon Bett KEN 1:45.80
4. Jesus Tonatiu Lopez MEX 1:46.57
5. Robert Farkan GER 1:46.65
…
7. Vincent Crisp USA 1:46.97
10. Brian Bell USA 1:47.18
Analysis: Fans can only wish that Texas A&M frosh Donavan Brazier had chosen to go for the U.S. Junior team in addition to – or even instead of – the Olympic Trials, where he missed advancing beyond the first round. Brazier, after a fine prep career than included an NBNO title, broke the American Junior record at NCAAs with his 1:43.55, then turned pro. He would definitely have contended for a medal here if he’d been on his game. As it is, the Kenyans are in good shape for a shot at repeating their gold-silver finish of 2014 in Eugene, with Willy Kiplimo Tarbei and Kipyegon Bett ranking 1-3 among entrants this time. Both of them also contested last summer’s World Youth champs in Cali, with Tarbei prevailing for gold.
Mostafa Smaili of Morocco has been impressive indoors and out this year, having placed 6th at World Indoor in Portland in March, then nearly breaking 1:45 in June outdoors. American entrants Vincent Crisp and Brian Bell impressed with their stretch battle at Juniors in Clovis and each has shot at making the final. Bell anchored the Dayton Dunbar team that set an indoor national sprint medley mark at NBNI in ’15.
Team USA History: The high-water mark for Americans came in 2010, when Cas Loxsom and Robby Andrews won silver and bronze for Team USA. Tre’Tez Kinnaird was 6th in ’14.
4x100m relay: USA should stay on top
(qualifying 7/22, final 7/23)
Records
Meet: 38.66, USA 2004
WJR: 38.66, USA 2004
AJR: 38.66, 2004
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best)
1. Chinese Taipei 39.51
2. Australia 39.62
3. Jamaica 39.74
4. Germany 39.74
5. South Africa 39.88
Analysis / Team USA History: Although Usain Bolt-led Jamaican teams are perennial favorites at the Senior men’s level, the Juniors have still been dominated by Team USA. The Americans have won six of the past seven titles, including the ’14 edition in Eugene at 38.70. That was just .03 off the 2012 winning performance, which was in turn just .01 of Team USA’s WJR from 2004 of 38.66. This U.S. team obviously has some great prep talent in Lyles and Norman (a 10.20+ man in his 3rd best event), but not a truly fearsome collegian on there, as well – so getting that WJR might be hard. Based on individual times, Jamaica looks like the 2nd-best team, at least, even though they are 3rd on the current World list.
400m hurdles – Hyde looks to defend
(qualifying was 7/21, semis 7/22, final 7/23)
Records
Meet: 48.51, Kerron Clement USA 2004
WJR: 48.02, Danny Harris USA 1984
AJR: 48.02, Danny Harris 1984
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Jaheel Hyde JAM 48.81
2. Mikeal De Jesus BRA 49.62
3. Taylor McLaughlin USA 49.73
4. Yoshiro Watanabe JAP 49.76
5. Victor Coroller FRA 50.47
…
18. Justin Alexander USA 50.47
UPDATE (after qualifying): The top contenders generally advanced easily yesterday, with favorite Jaheel Hyde winning heat 4 in 51.28. The top qualifier was Kefilwe Mogawane of South Africa in 50.53, with American Taylor McLaughlin 2nd in that heat and 4th overall with 51.28. Second American Justin Alexander was DQ’d in his heat.
Original analysis: Jaheel Hyde falls in the category of rare and special defending champs, having won in Eugene at age 17 after his ’13 World Youth title at 110H. He’s also made the Jamaican team for the Rio Games, but he’s still on the start lists here. His 48.81 is well clear of the field.
Three others have broken 49, including U-M frosh Taylor McLaughlin, who had a great campaign after a star-studded career at Union Catholic, NJ – producing many winning and All-American relay and individual finishes in NBN meets. While not quite as talented as sister Sydney, Taylor is already one of the top NCAA hurdlers and will likely contend to win there in ’17. Meanwhile, he did look a little off form at the USA Juniors in Clovis, suggesting normal effects of the long NCAA season. But if he can get back under 50, he could medal. Justin Alexander had been 3rd there, but was picked over runner-up Amere Lattin, since Lattin is in tonight’s 110H final.
Team USA History: Americans have five golds here, including meet record-holder Kerron Clement in ’04, Chris Carter in ’06, Eric Futch in ’12 and a 1-2 sweeps in ’08 with Jeshua Anderson and Johnny Dutch.
400m dash – Thebe’s out; teammate Sibanda now favored
(qualifying was 7/20, semis 7/21, final 7/22)
Records
Meet: 44.66, Hamdan Odha Al-Bishi KSA 2000
WJR: 43.87, Steve Lewis USA 1988
AJR: 43.87, Steve Lewis 1988
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Baboloki Thebe BOT 44.22
2. Abdalelah Haroun QAT 44.81
3. Kahmari Montgomery USA 45.13
4. Wilbert London USA 45.28
5. Karabo Sibanda BOT 45.40
UPDATE (after semis): One of the heartbreaking moments of the championships came after the 400 semis when favorite Baboloki Thebe of Botswana was disqualified from the event for running outside his lane. He had run 44.67 in the 2nd semi, which would have been by far the fastest qualifier into the final. That leaves Thebe with just the 4x400 to race, while teammate Karabo Sibanda tries to win gold in his place. Sibanda leads finalists now with the 45.15 he ran in the first of the semis. Geoffrey Kiprotich looked good for Kenya with his heat 3 win at 45.38, while Americans Kahmari Montgomery and Wilbert London III made it with room to spare in 45.49 and 45.71.
UPDATE (after qualifying): The key contenders all won their prelims yesterday, with favorite Baboloki Thebe running 2nd fastest overall at 46.25. Geoffrey Kiprotich advanced fastest with a 46.23 PR, while Kahmari Montgomery looked strong in his triumph at 46.46. U.S. teammate Wilbert London needed just 47.23 to win his heat.
Original analysis: Baboloki Thebe has had a stunning ascension to the top of 400m running. While he had been successful at 100 and 200, his progression in ’16 from a 45.23 debut to 44.22 (#2 all-time U20) was more than expected. Having also won the senior African title at sea level in 44.69, he’s proven that the 44.22 was no fluke. His consistency makes him a reliable favorite. Another African, Qatar’s Abdalelah Haroun, ran 44.27 last year and 44.81 so far this year, making him the top challenger, at least.
When 45.19 performer Michael Norman decided just to focus on the 200 at USA Juniors, that left the 400 to a pair of collegians, Missouri’s Kamahri Montgomery and Baylor’s Wil London. Both went into the low 45s this year, but obviously you always watch for the effects of a long NCAA campaign for the collegians and how they hold up into July. Both were under 46 in Clovis, so the prospect is promising that either or both can at least contend for bronze. Finally, don’t forget about ’15 World Youth champ Christopher Taylor of Jamaica – just 45.66 this year but 45.27 last year at age 15.
Team USA History: Americans have been pretty successful here, winning six times with the last being Marcus Boyd’s 2008 victory. At least one medal went to Team USA in every WJC from ’02 through ’12, before a shutout in ’14.
200m dash: How fast can Norman go?
(qualifying 7/21am, semis 7/21pm, final 7/22)
Records
Meet: 20.28, Andrew Howe ITA 2004
WJR: 19.93, Usain Bolt JAM 2004
AJR: 20.09, Noah Lyles USA 2016
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Michael Norman USA 20.14
2. Baboloki Thebe BOT 20.21
3. Clarence Munyai RSA 20.36
4. Nigel Ellis JAM 20.40
5. Tlotliso Leotlela RSA 20.47
…
9. Micaiah Harris USA 20.77
UPDATE (after qualifying): The times that Michael Norman put up in the first two rounds were not impressive (for him). That he ran 20.74 and 20.71 while running hard barely half the race – THAT was impressive. He’s still got lane 6, despite qualifying 5th into the final. Hard to imagine anyone else going under the 20.20 level that Norman will almost certainly surpass. It would be a big surprise if the 12-year-old meet record of 20.28 survives. Meanwhile, South Africa’s Clarence Munyai has paced qualifying in both rounds, going as fast as 20.40, making him a good candidate for silver.
Analysis: Compared to the 100, there really isn’t a question mark as to who is the leading man among the 200 entries. Michael Norman – Lyles’ friendly rival in the battle for prep sprinting supremacy – is the unquestioned favorite. Like Lyles, he had an amazing week at the Trials – first not qualifying to advance in a different event (400), then duking it out with him in the 200 –virtually speaking in the rounds, then literally in the final. Norman hit 20.14 for 5th there, just .01 off Roy Martin’s previous HSR and .05 behind Lyles. Also like Lyles, Norman just ran one of his favorite sprints at USA Juniors, dominating the 200 and passing up the 400. So he’ll try and claim his golds here and probably the 4x400 relay.
Team USA’s #2 entry is Micaiah Harris, the Western Branch VA prep who also made the World Youth team last year. He had a big PR 20.77 to get the surprise runner-up finish, the kind of time that could well make the final. Medaling would probably require chopping off at least another quarter-second. Jamaicans Ellis (see above 100) and Akeem Bloomfield are among the other medal contenders, as are South Africans Letlela (above) and Clarence Munyai at 20.36. Then there’s Botswana’s Baboloki Thebe, who has had a stunning ascension to the top of the 400 ranks, but is also a 20.21 star in the 200 – he was 2nd to Lyles in the 200 back at the ’14 Youth Olympics. He’ll have to choose one or the other and is likely slated for the 400, however.
Team USA History: Americans strangely struggled in this event here from 1990 through 2010, with no golds and a stretch of four championships (2004-2010) with no medals. Then Aaron Ernest and Tyreek Hill went silver-bronze in ’12 and Trentavis Friday blasted to the gold in 2014. Previously, the first two WJCs saw golds claimed by Team USA’s Stanley Kerr and Kevin Braunskill.
MEN’s FIELD
Javelin
Records
Meet: 83.07, John Robert Oosthuizen RSA 2006
WJR: 84.11, Zigismunds Sirmais, LAT 2011
AJR: 74.64, Joe Zimmerman 2010
(Sam Crouser 77.84 in ’10 never ratified)
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Neeraj Chopra IND 82.23
2. Emin Oncel TUR 79.42
3. Alexandru Novac ROU 78.66
4. Arshad Nadeem Pak 78.33
5. Anderson Peters GRN 78.28
Analysis: Neeraj Chopra of India is the only thrower over 80 meters this year and has the year’s five best throws.
High Jump – Carbin copy of Cali?
(qualifying 7/20, final 7/22)
Records
Meet: 2.37m/7-9.25, Steve Smith GBR 1992
WJR: 2.37m/7-9.25, Steve Smith GBR 1992
AJR: 2.31/7-7, Andra Manson 2002
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Jah-Nhai Perinchief BER 7-5
2. Oleksandr Barannikov UKR 7-5
3. Luis Zayas CUB 7-4.5
4. Christopher Moleya RSA 7-3.75
5. Yuji Hiramatsu JPN 7-3.25 (7-5.75 in ’15)
…
8. Darius Carbin USA 7-3.25
10. Michael Burke USA 7-2.25
Analysis: Jah-Nhai Perinchief has a chance to win the first-ever medal for Bermuda in any event if he can hold form here. An Iowa Central CC frosh, he was only 3rd at the NJCAA champs, but then he was also long- and triple-jumping to score points! Oleksandr Baranniov of Ukraine shares the top seed with him. One other to watch closely, though, is ’14 Youth Olympic silver medalist Yuji Hiramatsu of Japan, who has hit just 7-3.25 this year, but 7-5.75 in ’15.
Team USA is led by Darius Carbin, who had a wonderful performance in Cali last year at WY for bronze, then stepped up huge with his first career 7-3 jump to win USA Juniors. Moving up to 7-4 or 7-5 to be in medal contention will be tough, but he’s shown a knack for improving at the right time. Teammate Michael Burke is a UCLA frosh, so it will be two Californians for Team USA.
Team USA History: David Smith was the last medalist for Team USA with silver in 2010, while the last (and only) gold was captured by Andra Manson in 2002. No American made the final two years ago.
Hammer – Familiar pair leads Team USA
(qualifying 7/20, final 7/22)
Records
Meet: 85.57m/280-9, Ashraf Amgad Elseify QAT 2012
WJR: 85.57m/280-9, Ashraf Amgad Elseify QAT 2012
AJR: 80.79m/265-0, Conor McCullough 2010
Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Bence Halasz HUN 271-1
2. Aleksi Jaakkola FIN 264-3
3. Ahmed Tarek Ismail EGY 261-11
4. Hlib Piskunov UKR 259-8
5. Aaron Kangas FIN 256-2
…
9. Robert Colantonio USA 243-2
12. Adam Kelly USA 239-5
Analysis: Hungary’s Bence Halasz has established himself as the man to beat, not just with his world-leading mark, but his consistency over 270 feet. Obviously, he’s motivated to bring home his country’s first gold in the event. Meanwhile, while Finland does not have a medal contender in the javelin, they have a pair in the hammer with Aleksi Jaakkola and Aaron Kangas. Both have been consistent as well.
Team USA has a pair of familiar faces in former Barrington HS (Rhode Island) teammates Robert Colantonio and Adam Kelly (now a Princeton freshman). They finished 1-2 at USA Juniors for the 2nd straight year; last year’s performance took them to Pan Am Juniors, where each made the final. Colantonio also made the World Youth final in ’15. Between them, they have nearly half a dozen NBN hammer and weight throw titles the past three years.
Team USA History: Americans had a great run in ’08-’10, as Walter Henning and Conor McCullough first fashioned a gold/silver finish, then McCullough followed two years later with his own victory. Team USA had no finalists in ’14, however.
