National Scholastic Athletics Foundation

Here is our preview of the Tuesday evening events (7/19) at the 2016 World U20 Championships, July 19-24, in Bydgoszcz, Poland.
 

Pole Vault: Can Murto match indoor record?

(qualifying 7/19pm, final 7/21pm)
Records
Meet: 4.50m/14-9, Angelica Bengtsson SWE 2012 and Alayna Lutkovskaya RUS 2014
WJR: 4.64m/15-2.75, Eliza McCartney NZL 2015
AJR: 4.46m/14-7.5, Lexi Weeks USA 2015

Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Wilma Murto FIN 15-5.5
2. Robeilys Peinado VEN 14-11.5
T3. Angelica Moser SUI 14-9
T3. Lisa Gunnarsson SWE 14-9
5. Rachel Baxter USA 14-3
…
T9. Carson Dingler USA 13-9.25

Analysis: The big question mark here at Worlds is Wilma Murto.  The Finn soared over a stunning 15-5.5 for a World U20 indoor record earlier this year, also superior to the outdoor WJR – but outdoors has achieved just 14-10 so far.  The latter kind of mark merely makes her one of several contenders in that range – the best being Robeilys Peinado.  The Venezuelan has a World Youth gold (’13) and Youth Olympic silver (’14) to her credit, and also won the Pan Am Junior vault last summer.

Another question mark, though, is Australian Nina Kennedy – a PR of 15-0.75 last year, but just 14-1.25 this year.  She was 4th in this meet two years ago.  The USA duo is making a satisfying return to world competition here; Rachel Baxter and Carson Dingler each made the World Youth final last year, despite their vault poles being unavailable most of the week.  Baxter improved dramatically to 14-3 this year, the kind of mark that if she can do it again would make her a medal contender.  Dingler’s PR doesn’t rank her as high, but 14 feet is in her wheelhouse if she can put it together.

Team USA History:  Desiree Freier became the first USA medalist in this event when she won silver two years ago with a HSR 14-7.25.  Rachel Laurent’s 4th in ’08 had been the previous best.

Decathlon: Germany vs. Cuba for the medals

(1st day concluding 7/19pm, final day 7/20)
Records
Meet: 8,135 pts, Jiri Sykora CZE 2014
WJR: 8,397 pts, Torsten Voss GDR 1982
AJR: 8,037 pts, Harrison Williams 2015

Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Jan Ruhrmann GER 7,972
2. Santiago Ford CUB 7,943
3. Niklas Kaul GER 7,910
4. Rik Taam NED 7,701
5. Rafael Noguera CUB 7,663
…
10. Cale Wagner USA 7,532

Analysis: With a pair of athletes ranked in the top 5 each, Germany and Cuba figure to rule the decathlon.  Three have scored between 7,900 and 8,000 points: Germany’s Jan Ruhrmann and Niklas Kaul, and Cuba’s Santiago Ford.  Kaul is the reigning World Youth champ off his World Best 8,002 from last year; he was known for his impressive javelin marks, including 256-6 in that meet (he also won the silver in the individual jav).  Ford has competed twice in IAAF world meets, but with poor results.  Team USA’s Cale Wagner, a U. of Nebraska frosh, earned his spot with his 7,532 PR at USA Juniors.  He did not contest the event as a prep in that state, but scored 7,057 in the Big Ten meet with senior implements before his impressive meet in Clovis.

NOTE: After three events Monday morning, the form chart had been turned upside down somewhat, with Maksim Andralotis (BLR), Rik Taam (NED), Johannes Erm (EST) and Hans-Christian Hausenberg (EST) leading with 2,519, 2,468, 2,456 and 2,442 points, respectively.  And, with a big PR 23-11 long jump fueling his effort, the American Cale Wagner continued to show himself a rising star in 5th with 2,436 pts.

Team USA History:  Gunnar Nixon’s gold in 2012 was the first Team USA medal ever in this event.  In 2014, Harrison Williams and Gabe Moore were 6th and 8th.

Women’s 10,000m race walk: Clearly it’s Ma, if she returns to form

(straight final)
Records
Meet: 42:47.25, Anezka Drahotova CZE 2014
WJR: 42:47.25, Anezka Drahotova CZE 2014
AJR: 49:32.85, Maria Michta 2005

Top 5 Entries
(by '16 best, plus additional U.S.)
1. Zhenxia Ma CHN 44:29
2. Taika Nummi FIN 45:01i
3. Valeria Ortuno MEX 45:28
4. Noemi Stella ITA 45:55
5. Shanshan Jiang CHN 46:18
...
27. Meghan Podlaski USA 49:57
31. Anali Cisneros USA 50:37

Analysis: Though she’s only 17, China’s Zhenxia Ma has claimed three major titles already: The Youth Olympics in ’14, World Youth Champs in ’15 and the IAAF World Team Champs already this year.  A unusually poor 5th-place showing in a Chinese event last month, however, adds an element of suspense as to whether she will be healthy and in top form.  Mexico’s Ortuno won silver behind Ma two years ago in Nanjing and was 3rd in the recent Team Champs, establishing consistency as a medal threat.  Several others with a mix of fast times or big meet creds could fight for other medals.  Americans Meghan Podlaski and Anali Cisneros could challenge Maria Michta's best finish (below) if they can have PR-level walks.

Team USA History:  An American has never medaled here.  AJR holder Maria Michta was 22nd in 2004 and two years ago Katharine Newhoff placed 32nd.

Discus: U.S. standouts mix it up with veteran stars

(qualifying 7/19pm, final 7/21pm)
Records
Meet: 68.24m/223-10, Ilke Wyludda GDR 1988
WJR: 74.40m/244-1, Ilke Wyludda GDR 1988
AJR: 60.59m/198-9, Shelbi Vaughan USA 2012

Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Kristina Rakocevic MNE 191-3
2. Elena Bruckner USA 186-9
3. Alexandra Emilianov MDA 182-8
4. Shanice Love JAM 179-6
5. Kiana Phelps USA 176-9 (179-7 in ’14)

Analysis:  The discus is nearly on a par with the shot here as a showcase for U.S. throwers and, in this case, there’s a more consistent medal history in recent WJs (see below).  Either Elena Bruckner or Kiana Phelps – or both – could add to that recent medal legacy.  Bruckner has been pretty consistent in the mid-170s to mid-180s, with her only loss to Jamaica’s Shanice Love – herself a big medal threat – at the Penn Relays.  Phelps has repped Team NSAF in the 2015 CSI meet in Cuba, plus three Chicagoland/Iron Wood throws events, and is coming off her first NBNO title after a 2nd in ’15 and 3rd in ’14.  If either or both can get 180, they probably have a spot on the medal stand.

The competition, however, is formidable.  Kristina Rakocevic of Montenegro won discus silver and shot put bronze at WY last summer, plus was 4th at Youth Olympics in ’14.  And Alexandra Emilianov of Moldova was the one who beat Rakocevic in Cali – even though she’s behind her on this year’s World list.  When you add in Love, who won that unforgettable duel at Penn, you have a very tough field.  If you are a U.S. throws fan, you’re going to love the shot and discus.

Team USA History:  No American woman has ever won discus gold in WJ competition, but there have been five silver or bronze medalists, including one in each of the past three WJCs: Erin Pendleton silver in ’10, Shelby Vaughan bronze in ’12 and Valarie Allman silver two years ago.

Shot Put: Bukowiecki overwhelming fave; U.S. has silver/bronze hopes

(qualifying was 7/19am, final 7/19pm)
Records
Meet: 72-10, Jacko Gill NZL 2012
WJR: 75-5.5, Jacko Gill NZL 2013
AJR: 71-10.25, John Maurins 2014

Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Konrad Bukowiecki POL 75-3.25
2. Andrei Toader ROU 71-1.25
3. Marcus Thomsen NOR 66-7.25
4. Szymon Mazur POL 66-4.25
5. Wictor Petersson SWE 66-3.25
…
6. Adrian Piperi USA 66-2.5
7. Bronson Osborn USA 65-10.25

Analysis: As successful as Adrian Piperi and Bronson Osborn have been in U.S. prep action – and as great as Piperi’s World Youth title was last year – the Junior level is a different animal with a different implement.  And there’s a mountain of a young man standing between them – and everyone else – and a gold medal.  The host nation’s Konrad Bukowiecki is the rarest of young athletes – a defending champ at the World Junior level, meaning he beat a lot of older throwers two years ago to win and now he’s still around for an encore.  Polish fans and countless others can’t wait to see if this will finally be the meet where Bukowiecki takes down Jacko Gill’s 2012 World Junior record – he’s just two inches away.  He’s already having great success with the senior 16-lb. implement, too, and is also motivated in Bydgoszcz by helping 4th-ranked teammate Szymon Mazur to another Polish medal.

Meanwhile, Piperi and Osborn – neither of whom threw exceptionally far with this 6kg implement at U.S. Juniors, find themselves seeded 6th and 7th (and having qualified 5th and 4th, respectively, in Tuesday morning’s session).  Tripp should be able to hit 68-69 feet and Osborn in the 66-67 range, based on their prep (12lb.) bests.  That would put them in bronze medal contention, at least.  Romanian Andrei Toader is also way out there at 71-1.25 as the #2 seed.

Team USA History:  Americans have four medals in this event, including gold by Adam Nelson back in 1994 and bronze by Braheme Days in Eugene two years ago.

400m dash: A return to form could spell gold for Irby

(prelims 7/19, semis 7/20, final 7/21)
Records
Meet: 50.50, Ashley Spencer USA 2012
WJR: 49.42, Grit Breuer GER 1991
AJR: 49.89, Sanya Richards-Ross 2004

Top 5 Entries
(by '16 best, plus additional U.S.)
1. Junelle Bromfield JAM 51.74
2. Tiffany James JAM 52.06
3. Roxana Gomez CUB 52.26
4. Yinka Ajayi NGR 52.27
5. Jessica Thornton AUS 52.33
…
8. Lynna Irby USA 52.51 (51.79 in ’15)
13. Karrington Winters USA 53.34

Analysis: A big question for USA fans is whether or not we’ll see the pretty good “springtime” Lynna Irby or the eye-popping “summer 2015” Lynna Irby.  No one will forget the monster PR 51.79 the Indiana prep unleashed in winning World Youth silver last summer.  That kind of mark would be fighting for the gold here.  Based on 2016 form to date, though, Irby ranks 8th – about ¾-second behind Jamaican Junelle Bromfield.  But Irby has done her best racing in the summer during other years, too, so another mid-summer peak performance could be in the cards.

Otherwise, Jamaica could win gold here for the first time with the aforementioned Bromfield, a 51.74 performer.  In fact, a gold-silver sweep would be possible given that Tiffany James is next on the list at 52.06.  Among the bronze contenders is Roxana Gomez, the Cuban who won CSI in ’15 and also ran well at World Youth and Pan Am Junior finals.  Karrington Winters is the other U.S. entry, hoping to improve enough to make the final with a 53.34 PR.

Team USA History:  Americans have some good success here, winning four golds.  That includes gold-silver by Monique Henderson and Sanya Richards-Ross in ’02 and gold by Natasha Hastings in ’04.  Most recently, Ashley Spencer set the meet record with her ’12 triumph and Kendall Baisden and Olivia Baker went 1-3 in ’14.

10,000m run: Eritreans and Ugandans could rule

(straight final)
Records
Meet: 27:30.85, Josphat Bett Kipkoech KEN 2008
WJR: 26:41.75, Sammy Wanjiru KEN 2005
AJR: 28:32.7h, Rudy Chapa 1976

Top 5 Entries
(by ’16 best; plus additional U.S.)
1. Aron Kifle ERI 27:27.04
2. Rodgers Chumo Kwemoi KEN 27:43.85
3. Mogos Shumay ERI 27:56.98
4. Martin Naibei Musau UGA 28:11.64
5. Jacob Kiplimo UGA 28:26.30
…
20. Thomas Pollard USA 30:31.73
23. Colin Burke USA 30:46.25

Analysis:  East Africans will continue to dominate, but they aren’t necessarily from Kenya and Ethiopia.  The 2014 champ was Joshua Kiprui Cheptegei from Uganda and the top seed this time around is Aron Kifle from Eritrea at 27:27.04.  Since none of the top contenders have championship experience at this level, and because times can be misleading due to high-altitude or sit/kick situations for athletes new to this event, picking the medals will be tricky.  Uganda has another strong duo, in addition to the pairs from Eritrea and Kenya, and the other intriguing trend is the slippage among Ethiopian runners.  At #9-10 and with only a 6th-place finish in ’14, fortunes at the Junior level for this country are on the downturn. U.S. entries Thomas Pollard and Colin Burke will need PRs of more than a minute to finish in the top 10.

Team USA History:  Team USA has just two top 10 finishes in this event, topped by Parker Stinson’s surprising 6th-place finish in 2010.  In 2014, Brandan Shearn was 15th and Jonathan Green 24th.